Sarah Palin: High Risk, High Reward

McCain-Palin.

Surely, it must suggest that the McCain folks think they're in trouble, recent polling aside. It is an enormous gamble and reach, and after reading Sully all day (seriously, too much good stuff to link to), utterly unserious in terms of governance. THIS is precious. Deep thoughts on foreign policy.

READY ON DAY ONE, BABY!!

More political thoughts (some not so good for Dems.) tomorrow.

The acceptance speech

More or less, I agree with Sullivan's take. What we saw was a serious man, ready to lead the nation, and, FINALLY, unashamed of his liberalism.

Most conservatives (other than Pat Buchanan, who gushed over it last night, and Bill Kristol.) panned it, but that's the thing. Obama has been trying, throughout the campaign, to utterly reframe the purpose and reasoning behind liberalism, turning it into a very patriotic, American ideal. If last night did not prove it, nothing will.

Was it his best ever? No, but it was very good and watched by 38,000,00 on TV.

Oh, and the set worked just fine.

On Columns and Other Reflections

On the Greek Temple thing, Ben Smith helpfully reminds us that the Bush '04 set also had columns. I admit my premature freakout.

Awhile back, I posted THIS George Packer essay on what he hoped was the fall of modern American Conservatism. These lines struck me:

Yet the polarization of America, which we now call the “culture wars,” has been dissipating for a long time. Because we can’t anticipate what ideas and language will dominate the next cycle of American politics, the previous era’s key words—“élite,” “mainstream,” “real,” “values,” “patriotic,” “snob,” “liberal”—seem as potent as ever. Indeed, they have shown up in the current campaign: North Carolina and Mississippi Republicans have produced ads linking local Democrats to Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama’s controversial former pastor. The right-wing group Citizens United has said that it will run ads portraying Obama as yet another “limousine liberal.” But these are the spasms of nerve endings in an organism that’s brain-dead.

But are ALL the nerve endings dead? John McCain has been determined to prove Packer wrong.


To be fair, his ad tonight IS all class:


That said, he's run a post-Nixon conservative campaign: define your opponent as someone you cannot trust and who's "not like you and me." To an extent, it's worked.

All of which makes me ponder if this is another case of pundits declaring the "end of an era" prematurely. They no doubt declared Goldwater conservatism stillborn in '64. We now know it wasn't. Let's just wait folks.

Finally, Day 3 in Denver was MUCH better. Sen. Obama speaks in 2 hrs.

Focus, people!

Interesting piece the other day by Joe Klein on a Frank Luntz focus group.

I think he misinterprets one thing, though: the "'Change' is over" meme. See, what we're missing is the legacy of McCain 2000. Despite the fact that he's reverted to a Bush '04-like campaign, with similar policies (on steroids?) and campaign methods.

BUTTTTT, the goodwill McCain built up 8 yrs. ago is helping. Many are convinced, whether we choose Obama or McCain, that we'll GET CHANGE. Now, it's a matter of degree and, crucially, what type we're most comfortable. Of course, if Obama can erode McCain's "Maverick" image...

Also from Klein: (And as for McCain's Paris/Britney ad--the key wasn't the charge that Obama was a celebrity, but the sight of him speaking to that vast crowd in Germany, which at least one member of the focus group compared to a Nazi rally.)

Gee, didn't see that coming. Oh, wait...

Well, at least the Obama folks have learned from it. Oh, OOOOOOOOPS! Ya know, I'll wait and see how it actually turns out, but Jeebus, it looks way too grandiose right now. It reinforces the McCain meme and isn't needed.

The Biden pick

Now we know. Sen. Barack Obama selects Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) for his VP choice.

Two perspectives: First, Marc Ambinder. Second, Ron Fournier.

You know, early in the week, I hated the pick, thus putting me closer to Fournier. Not only does Biden, umm, like to hear himself talk, but the whole plagiarism thing will no doubt come back in discussion.

As time goes on though, I kinda like it. Love it? No. But, overall, I agree with Sullivan's take. Fears that an Obama Admin. will be a bunch of young, naive punks making policy should be partially negated.

Take a month off

And everything changes! Obama's lead evaporates. Russia goes all Tsarist* on us. And, the IndyCar Series flirts with irrelevance.

As for why Obama's in trouble, THIS Sullivan post goes a long way to explaining it, along with my theory that folks didn't object to Bush on ideas; they did so on competence. Liberals missed this.

*Just a note. Putin's Russia is many bad things; Communist, it ain't.

More on the IRL later.

The seeds of Orthogonian revolt

So, The New York Times rejected a McCain op-ed. On the same day, the McCain camp comes out with this:


Obama, meanwhile, is on his great trip abroad. On said trip, as many as one million Germans may turn out to see his speech. Furthermore, per the Yahoo! link, we have the Iraqi PM basically endorsing Sen. Obama's withdrawal plans.

The McCain ad is silly. Oil prices are high? Blame the guy who has only been there for 3.5 years! Really, nonsense. But...

But from another perspective, the McCain ad works beautifully. Notice, in particular, the "chanting" of "Obama! Obama" during the ad. It reminds Orthogonians, the folks that Rick Perlstein chronicles in Nixonland as increasingly resentful of liberal elites, that Obama's campaign is "new", with "young supporters." By their traditional nature, Orthogonians aren't worried about long-term climate and energy policies. If you can drill, DRILL, they say. Those who get in the way don't "get it."

The Times' decision to reject the McCain op-ed might be right on the merits (It was little more than "Obama would have lost Iraq), but horrible politics. Orthogonians already see the media as elitist liberals, with the NYT at the top of that list. They'll resent what they see as the NYT's censorship of McCain.

As for the great Obama trip, well, Orthogonians might be reassured..., or the reception of "elitist Europeans" will only make them suspicious of Obama ("Is he one of us?"). While they simultaneously seek elite approval, they also revel in not getting it. Will this tell these folks that Obama is just like those who, supposedly, look down on them?

I have no idea, but I post this to remind pundits not to assume too much here. The above scenario could be the winning one.