Depressing, Not-so Depressing

Yglesias brings the depressing. I suspect he's right.

Al Giordano with the not-so depressing.

So Sad, So Inspiring

Translation of the woman's thoughts (via):

Tomorrow is Saturday. Tomorrow is a day of destiny.

Tonight, the cries of Allah-o Akbar are heard louder and louder than the nights before.

Where is this place? Where is this place where every door is closed? Where is this place where people are simply calling God? Where is this place where the sound of Allah-o Akbar gets louder and louder?

I wait every night to see if the sounds will get louder and whether the number increases. It shakes me. I wonder if God is shaken.

Where is this place that where so many innocent people are entrapped? Where is this place where no one comes to our aid? Where is this place that only with our silence we are sending our voices to the world? Where is this place that the young shed blood and then people go and pray -- standing on that same blood and pray. Where is this place where the citizens are called vagrants?

Where is this place? You want me to tell you? This place is Iran. The homeland of you and me.
This place is Iran.

Dawn approaches. The world watches, and prays.

Showdown coming

Watching NBC News tonight, that's the distinct impression one gets. Tomorrow, Mousavi has called for demonstrations and a national day of mourning for those who have already been martyred (yes, martyred). There should be a ton of people on the streets.

Then, Friday prayers, given by Khamenei himself, with more huge opposition protests planned (bigger than tomorrow even). And so, that might be the day of destiny.

But maybe not. Maybe a compromise will be reached, though the longer this goes, the more unlikely it becomes. Or, perhaps, in a tale out of Shakespeare, Rafsanjani ousts Khamenei in Qom.

Whatever happens, I have two thoughts: One, this is NOT about us (in the West); it is about Iranians and their future. But that doesn't mean that we as citizens cannot morally sympathize w/ our Iranian brothers and sisters who are rallying (and dying) for those most basic and universal principles of free votes, dissent, and freedom to make one's own destiny in life. These are human principles, that do not differentiate between geography or religion.

Second, as Djerejian is the latest to note, the Islamic Republic, whatever happens, will never be the same.

Solidarity

Until this is over in Iran, this tiny blog will go green. We are with you. Stay safe, stay strong.

Choices, choices

In brutal fashion, the mullahs have made their choice. As Juan Cole notes, it is laughable that Ahmadinejad "won" in the fashion the mullahs claim. Seriously fellas, you expect us to buy that Ahmad won Tehran by any margin, let alone 50%? Really?

The violence by the IRGC and the Basij militias is very real. More troubling? Reports like THIS and THIS. Put this together with speculation from Trita Parsi at the end of Laura Rozen's report, and we may be seeing a full-on crack-up of the regime of epic proportions, in which hard-liners are determined to destroy ALL opposition, brutality included (though the demonstrations are also inspiring).

We've not heard the last of this. Either we will end up w/ at least a partially liberated Iran governed by moderates or a fully oppressed, subjugated populace governed by hard-line Khomenist Islamists.

The populace faces an impossible choice: Revolt and (possibly) die, or acquiesce to disaster. Unfortunately, the same choice might already have been taken from Mousavi and Rafsanjani.

Stirrings in Persia?

Iranian politics in the Islamic Republic aren't supposed to be interesting. Presidential candidates are vetted by the clerical Guardians Council, a rather hard-line body (some call it a "Clerical Senate"). All candidates are supposed to support the Islamic state, and the ultimate authority of the Supreme Leader. Theo-democracies are not terribly dramatic.

Except when they are. At worst, we're seeing a rather nasty internal debate in the regime, between Rafsanjani, now with reformist alliances, and Khamenei. Fortunately, for the rest of us, those spats have become very public, leading to massive rallies and a surprising, if temporary openness. The youth have rallied to Mousavi, whose wife has become a surprising asset, and the energy is in his camp.

Which might not matter, if hard-liners rig the vote. The Revolutionary Guards are warning against any "Velvet Revolutions," a clear shot at Mousavi, Karroubi, and their supporters. This strikes me as a most unwise path for the mullahs.

Fellas, let's play this out. You've seen the same rallies we have and have no doubt watched in horror the public debates. Now, you want to put it to rest and quash. Problem is y'all let it happen. Putting that genie back in the bottle now? Yeah, good luck with that.

After all, guys, revolutions can start over much less. And unlike Chinese authorities in 1989, I'm wondering if you have the ability to quash a movement, should it start, divided as you are. Think about it fellas. Sure, the nature of your theocratic regime may need to be tweaked slightly in response to a Mousavi win, but from your perspective, it's better than blowing the whole thing up, right?

Oh yeah, the world would appreciate it too.

About Those "Actions"

See, ultimately, Cairo's effect depends on future actions by all sides. On our side, THIS decision is almost impossible to defend. Maybe the propaganda angle works, but I don't buy it.

In the global realm, small thing. But it just makes you wonder about future choices.